Expected Value Archives | Raise Your Game

Sports

Interesting Insights from SIG’s 2022 Super Bowl Square Probabilities

February 23, 2022 by Zach

Every year at SIG, we celebrate the Super Bowl with a firm-wide Super Bowl Sweepstakes. This year, every employee was randomly assigned Cincinnati or Los Angeles as the winner and the last digit of each team’s final score. In order to win, both the team you were assigned needed to...

Sports

SIG’s Night at the Ballpark Sweepstakes Challenge

July 22, 2019 by Dan

Wednesday morning, June 26, 2019 At SIG’s Philadelphia office, we celebrate the summer each year with our “Night at the Ballpark” perfect for enjoying each other’s company and cheering on the Philadelphia Phillies. This year, the Phillies will be hosting the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. To make...

Sports

Rooting for the Favorite

November 8, 2017 by Doug

Imagine this hypothetical scenario: The Patriots have advanced to the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs and are waiting to see who will play the Falcons in the NFC Championship game. The Eagles are playing the Packers in the divisional round for the right to play the Falcons in the...

Sports

Insuring the Indians’ Win Streak

September 22, 2017 by Todd

ESPN recently ran an article about an Ohio-based window company that guaranteed any of its customers who installed windows (the kind that makes walls transparent, not the PC operating system), siding, or doors in the month of July would have their money returned if the Cleveland Indians had a 15-game...

Poker

Poker Quiz #1: Expected Value

July 19, 2017 by Rob

The idea of expected value is one that comes up often in poker and trading discussions. Expected value is the sum of the probability of each possible event times that event’s payoff. For example, if you were to flip a fair coin where you got paid $2 for heads and lost...

Sports

Did Kyle Shanahan blow the Super Bowl for the Atlanta Falcons?

February 27, 2017 by Justin

Here is the situation: The Falcons have the ball on the New England 23. It is 2nd and 11 with four minutes left, and the Falcons are nursing a 28 to 20 lead. Matt Ryan doesn’t hand it off! He gets sacked, putting the Falcons out of field goal range,...

Sports

Penalties in Gaelic Football: When to Go for Goal and When to Take Your Point

September 16, 2016 by Barry

With the All-Ireland Gaelic football final nearly upon us, let’s take a look at the strategies around penalty kicks. For those not familiar with the game, a brief primer: Gaelic football is a 15 player-a-side field sport where the ball can be handled and carried somewhat similarly to rugby, but...

Gaming

If You’re Reading This, You Probably Didn’t Win the Powerball

February 8, 2016 by Todd

The buzz may be over, but let's take a look at what your odds were of winning the largest Powerball prize drawing to date anyway. The estimated jackpot was $1.5 Billion, which is more than the GDP of Djibouti (and 25 other countries). The problem with playing in a lottery...

Sports

Overtime: The Unconventional Decision to Kick

January 21, 2016 by Al

On December 27, 2015, the New England Patriots and the New York Jets were tied 20-20 after regulation and were headed to overtime. The Patriots won the coin toss and elected to kick off rather than receive the ball first. The decision startled the broadcasters, and most of America for...

Sports

Trading Win Percentage for a “Friendly Loss”

January 12, 2016 by Marc

On December 20, 2015, the New York Giants were set to face the undefeated Carolina Panthers. The game had huge implications for the Giants’ season – with just 3 games remaining in the season, they came into it tied with the Eagles and Redskins for the best record in the...