Mental Tripwires

Mental Tripwires

Traders and decision makers acquire many of their skills through experience. When I read articles on improving decision-making, it sometimes feels like the answers I get, even from experts in the field, are vague and not easily applied to daily life. Below I give actionable advice you can use to...

Insuring the Indians’ Win Streak

ESPN recently ran an article about an Ohio-based window company that guaranteed any of its customers who installed windows (the kind that makes walls transparent, not the PC operating system), siding, or doors in the month of July would have their money returned if the Cleveland Indians had a 15-game...

Poker Quiz #1: Expected Value

The idea of expected value is one that comes up often in poker and trading discussions. Expected value is the sum of the probability of each possible event times that event’s payoff. For example, if you were to flip a fair coin where you got paid $2 for heads and lost...

Taking Biases out of Fantasy Trades

It’s a classic Fantasy Football situation. Team A has an extra running back, but only one startable wide receiver. Team B has an extra receiver, but only one startable running back. It’s a fantasy match made in heaven, but somehow they’re not able to agree on a trade. How is...